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		<title><![CDATA[Oil Debate and Oil Trading Forum by Live Oil Prices]]></title>
		<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/</link>
		<description><![CDATA[The most recent topics at Oil Debate and Oil Trading Forum by Live Oil Prices.]]></description>
		<lastBuildDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:18:30 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA and future oil investment fears]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic456-iea-and-future-oil-investment-fears-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[IEA Executive Director Nobuo Tanaka, who was in Madrid to unveil a review of Spanish energy policy, declined to comment on specific crude prices, but said they showed the global economy may not be recovering quickly.

"In the short-term, the current price level is affecting the supply-demand situation in a way that we haven't seen much of a robust demand recovery yet," Tanaka told reporters.

Tanaka said the IEA was still concerned that current investment in energy may not be enough to meet demand, as and when the economy does recover. "When the economic recovery happens, as many international organisations are expecting, we may see a very tight market toward 2014 and 2015," he told a conference at Spain's Industry Ministry.

Earlier this year, the IEA said a price of $75 a barrel for crude was needed to lure investment in offshore fields and oil sands, but only after the economy has recovered.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:18:30 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic456-iea-and-future-oil-investment-fears-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA oil market report for September 2009]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic435-iea-oil-market-report-for-september-2009-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Global oil demand is revised up nearly 0.5 mb/d for both 2009 and 2010, to 84.4 mb/d and 85.7 mb/d respectively, mostly on stronger-than-expected data in OECD North America and non-OECD Asia.  The global economy is stabilising, but OECD demand is poised to remain weak for the remainder of this year, while seemingly strong non-OECD demand may be obscured by Chinese stock building.

August global oil supply was down 400 kb/d from July to 84.9 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC output.  Total non-OPEC estimates for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged versus last month, averaging 51.0 mb/d in 2009 and 51.5 mb/d in 2010. OPEC NGL averages 5.2 mb/d and 6.1 mb/d respectively.

OPEC crude oil supply in August was up 55 kb/d at 28.8 mb/d.  OPEC-11 output rose by 80 kb/d to 26.3 mb/d, or 1.4 mb/d over target.  OPEC met in Vienna as this report went to press, with discussions on better compliance seemingly more likely than a further target cut.  The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is revised up to 28.3 mb/d for 3Q09 and to 27.9 mb/d in 4Q09 on the more robust demand forecast.

Global refinery crude run projections for 3Q09 are also revised up this month to 72.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d from last month’s report, due to higher demand estimates and a lower US hurricane adjustment.  Nonetheless, runs remain pressured by poor refining margins.

OECD industry stocks rose by 12.8 mb in July, to 2,778 mb, 4.6% above last year’s level.  Middle distillate increases in all three regions, particularly North America, outweighed a decrease in both gasoline and fuel oil stocks.  End-July forward demand cover was unchanged versus June at 61.8 days.

Benchmark crude oil prices rose $7/bbl on average in August, to around $71-73/bbl.  Arguably, prices have tested limits and trade in a $68-74/bbl price range for now.  Future price direction will hinge partly on how long the distillate overhang persists.

Source: [url]http://omrpublic.iea.org[/url]/]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Tue, 15 Sep 2009 06:40:17 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic435-iea-oil-market-report-for-september-2009-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Demand for oil will be stronger than expected, forecasts IEA]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic424-demand-for-oil-will-be-stronger-than-expected-forecasts-iea-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Global demand for oil will not fall as far as expected this year, although fears of a double-dip recession still dampen optimism, the IEA said this week.

Stronger than anticipated demand in China and the US in recent weeks has left the estimate of how far oil consumption will fall in 2009 at 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) – some 400,000 bpd lower than last month's forecast, which was itself revised down by 200,000 bpd from the July total.

The world's thirst for oil is now expected to be 84.4 million bpd in 2009 – some 2.2 per cent lower than last year – but it is likely to rise again by 1.3 million bpd to 85.7 million bpd next year, analysts say.

"There is growing evidence that the global economy may be finally stabilising, with industrial destocking coming to an end, coupled with the effects of large scale government intervention," the watchdog added yesterday.

But despite the upwards revisions on the strength of improving economic data, the IEA counselled against placing too much reliance on a smooth recovery. "The spectre of a double dip, W-shaped recession, which would undermine oil demand growth next year, cannot be entirely discounted," it said.

Even in the newly optimistic climate, demand from OECD developed economies is still expected to fall by 4.7 per cent this year, and only grow by a margin of 0.1 per cent in 2010. And although non-OECD oil consumption is now expected to grow by 400,000 bpd this year – a 220,000 bpd upwards revision – lack of clear data about Chinese inventory levels makes for an uncertain prognosis. The massive government stimulus has boosted demand but attempts to account for stock-building may overstate the case, the IEA said.

The more bullish economic data coming out of the US may also prove illusory. Although petrol demand bounced briefly in July – possibly the result of more stay-at-home driving holidays – consumption of diesel has continued to decline at double-digit rates. "There is considerable uncertainty regarding the prospects of a sustained US economic recovery," the IEA added.

There are also supply-side explanations for the falling inventory levels, according to Malcolm Fraser, of the energy consultancy McKinnon and Clarke. "This summer's hurricane season has been relatively light and has not really hit supplies from the Gulf of Mexico," Mr Fraser said. "As a result, the volume of imports has been relatively low."]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Sat, 12 Sep 2009 05:47:42 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic424-demand-for-oil-will-be-stronger-than-expected-forecasts-iea-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Barclays say IEA too bearish on oil demand]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic359-barclays-say-iea-too-bearish-on-oil-demand-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[The IEA remains too bearish on its outlook for oil demand in 2009 and has overlooked US industrial output that will boost consumption in the coming months, Barclays PLC said.

The IEA, energy advisor to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Wednesday raised its forecast for global oil demand after increasing the estimate for the second quarter. By maintaining its prediction for the latter half of 2009, the IEA isn’t accounting for signs of an economic recovery in the US the largest oil consuming nation, Barclays Capital commodities research analysts led by Paul Horsnell said in a weekly report.

“The potential for some strong demand signs in the middle of the demand barrel is one reason we continue to believe the International Energy Agency is still being far too bearish on 2009 demand,” the analysts said, referring to increased demand for transportation fuels, including diesel.

Oil rose Wednesday for the first day in five, climbing above US$70 a barrel in New York, after the IEA raised its consumption forecasts for this year and next.

Demand will average 83.9 million barrels a day in 2009, 180,000 barrels or 0.2% more than previously estimated, the Paris-based agency, adviser to 28 nations including Japan and Germany, said in its monthly Oil Market Report.

This includes a 0.7%, or 570,000 barrel-a-day, increase for the second quarter and a 0.1% revision for each of the other three quarters.

The U.S., which consumes almost a quarter of the world’s oil, emerged from a recession in June and will expand 3.5% in the third quarter after a 1% decline in the second, according to Barclays.

“Higher industrial output, higher final sales and private consumption combined with a lower rate of inventory decline is a recipe for more goods moving around the U.S. economy,” the analysts said.

Oil demand worldwide will rise in the second half of 2009 by about 300,000 barrels a day, according to the IEA, far less than a 1.8 million barrel-a-day forecast by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and a 1.9 million barrel-a-day prediction by the U.S. Energy Department. Barclays pegs the increase at 2.1 million barrels a day.

“We are forecasting an upswing in global oil demand from the second quarter into the fourth quarter that is seven times larger than the forecast of the International Energy Agency, and we still see upside risk in our forecast,” according to London-based Horsnell.

The IEA should “have a very hard look at the shape of their demand numbers, because we believe they run the risk of confusing the market with the current forecasts.”]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Tue, 18 Aug 2009 07:51:12 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic359-barclays-say-iea-too-bearish-on-oil-demand-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Oil rises above $71 as IEA boosts demand outlook]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic348-oil-rises-above-71-as-iea-boosts-demand-outlook-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[WTI light oil prices rose to near $71 a barrel Thursday after the International Energy Agency boosted its global crude demand forecast.

Investors brushed off evidence of weak crude demand in the US The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said crude inventories rose last week by 2.5 million barrels and were up 7.5 million during the last four weeks.

"There is now enough crude oil on hand to cover the next 24.2 days of demand," wrote trader and analyst Stephen Schork, in his Schork Report. "That is the largest amount of forward cover for the month of August since Saddam sent his tanks rolling into Kuwait in 1991."

Benchmark crude for September delivery was up $1.26 to $71.42 a barrel by noon European electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Wednesday, the contract climbed 71 cents to settle at $70.16.

The IEA, based in Paris, said Wednesday it raised its global oil consumption forecast for this year and next. Despite the rosier outlook, the IEA still expects demand this year to fall 2.7 percent as economies struggle to emerge from recession.

"We're forecasting an upswing in global oil demand from the second quarter into the fourth quarter," Barclays Capital said in a report. "The grounds are being laid for a sustained push to the upside."

Barclays expects oil to average $71 a barrel in the third quarter and $76 in the fourth.

Oil traders have also been watching global stock markets for signs of improving investor sentiment. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 1.3 percent Wednesday, and most Asian indexes gained Thursday.

"It might just be hard to break away from the major trend where equities go up and oil follows," said Michael Sander of Sander Capital Advisors in Seattle. "I would bet more on oil going up than down at this point."]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Fri, 14 Aug 2009 05:56:58 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic348-oil-rises-above-71-as-iea-boosts-demand-outlook-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA trims 2010 oil demand growth, recovery patchy]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic343-iea-trims-2010-oil-demand-growth-recovery-patchy-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[World oil demand will rise less than previously thought next year and evidence of a "bottoming out" of the recession is patchy at best, the IEA said on Wednesday.

The outlook from the IEA, which advises 28 consumer countries, follows two other cautious forecasts on oil demand this week. Oil prices eased following its release and were trading below $70 a barrel. "Evidence of a bottoming out of the recession is still a bit patchy. The latest data on industrial production for some of the larger countries remains negative," David Martin, analyst at the IEA. "There is not clear evidence yet we have seen the worst."

World oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2010 to average 85.3 million bpd, the Paris-based IEA said in its latest monthly report. The increase is 100,000 bpd less than previously forecast.

The agency also revised upwards global outright demand in 2010 by 70,000 bpd on the basis of higher fuel use in Asia and made a larger upward adjustment for 2009 demand, which is now assessed at 83.9 million bpd.

That barely changes the sharp contraction in world oil demand expected in 2009 because of the recession, the IEA said, forecasting fuel use this year would be 2.35 million bpd lower than in 2008.

The IEA cited a contraction in industrial production as a major limitation on demand and said global gas oil consumption , a key indicator of economic health, was significantly subdued.

Only China and India were registering growth in industrial production and elsewhere production was still contracting, although the pace of contraction had slowed. "Despite the amelioration of some economic indicators in a few countries, the most that can be said is that the global economy may be stabilising," the IEA said in its report.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Thu, 13 Aug 2009 07:33:13 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic343-iea-trims-2010-oil-demand-growth-recovery-patchy-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA says crude oil at $70 or above would hurt recovery]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic338-iea-says-crude-oil-at-70-or-above-would-hurt-recovery-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[A fragile global economic recovery will be hurt if oil prices stay at $70 per barrel or rise higher, International Energy Agency (IEA) Chief Economist Fatih Birol said.

He also said Europe was likely to face a glut of gas by 2015 and it may be hard to garner support for both the rival schemes for gas pipelines across Turkish territory, one of which is backed by the EU, the other by Russia.

Birol told Reuters he did not want a decision by OPEC, which is to meet on September 9, to boost oil prices to harmful levels. "The decision I think they will take will foster the economic recovery, rather than dampen the economic recovery hopes," Birol said in an interview late on Monday.

"We would not like to see prices going up to levels that would be a risk to the global economic recovery."

US light crude for September delivery was trading at $70.80 a barrel at 1000 GMT on Tuesday.

"If the prices go much higher than today I think that would be a problem for the economic recovery; $70 and above, especially for oil importing countries," Birol.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Wed, 12 Aug 2009 06:21:04 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic338-iea-says-crude-oil-at-70-or-above-would-hurt-recovery-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Countries must do more to recover methane, warns IEA]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic333-countries-must-do-more-to-recover-methane-warns-iea-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[No country has a comprehensive methane recovery and use policy framework in place, even though methane's potency as a greenhouse gas and its short atmospheric lifetime means reducing emissions of the gas is "a particularly effective tactic for mitigating the near term impacts of climate change", says the International Energy Agency - IEA

In a new report, Energy sector methane recovery and use: the importance of policy, it says "one of the main challenges is to increase awareness about the magnitude of methane emissions and the value of the lost fuel, particularly in the oil and gas sector. There are also legal and regulatory barriers to overcome relating to methane ownership at coal mines and landfills and in obtaining access to the electricity grid to sell back power that is generated at landfills, coal mines, or agricultural operations".]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Tue, 11 Aug 2009 07:31:00 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic333-countries-must-do-more-to-recover-methane-warns-iea-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[Has the IEA dramatically changed its oil production forecasts?]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic310-has-the-iea-dramatically-changed-its-oil-production-forecasts-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[So, is the IEA now saying global production will peak well before 2030? This would be quite a turnround. Last year’s WEO revised total oil production estimate for 2030, including unconventional oil, down by 10m barrels a day. But the 2008 report forecast that total crude oil production will increase through 2030 to 75.2m barrels a day, from 70.2m in 2007. 

It doesn’t clarify whether production peaks after 2030, but it does say that production of conventional, onshore crude oil by non OPEC countries would fall from 39.1m in 2007 to 36.3m in 2030.

The full article from the FT here: [url]http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/08/03/has-the-iea-dramatically-changed-its-output-assessments/[/url]]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Tue, 04 Aug 2009 07:39:26 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic310-has-the-iea-dramatically-changed-its-oil-production-forecasts-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA, Dr Fatih Birol - Oil supplies are running out fast]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic308-iea-dr-fatih-birol-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[The world is heading for a catastrophic energy crunch that could cripple a global economic recovery because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production, a leading energy economist has warned.

Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could blow any recovery off course, said Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the respected International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which is charged with the task of assessing future energy supplies by OECD countries. 

In an interview with The Independent, Dr Birol said that the public and many governments appeared to be oblivious to the fact that the oil on which modern civilisation depends is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years – at least a decade earlier than most governments had estimated.

But the first detailed assessment of more than 800 oil fields in the world, covering three quarters of global reserves, has found that most of the biggest fields have already peaked and that the rate of decline in oil production is now running at nearly twice the pace as calculated just two years ago. On top of this, there is a problem of chronic under-investment by oil-producing countries, a feature that is set to result in an "oil crunch" within the next five years which will jeopardise any hope of a recovery from the present global economic recession, he said.

In a stark warning to Britain and the other Western powers, Dr Birol said that the market power of the very few oil-producing countries that hold substantial reserves of oil – mostly in the Middle East – would increase rapidly as the oil crisis begins to grip after 2010.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day," Dr Birol said. "The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously," he said.

"The market power of the very few oil-producing countries, mainly in the Middle East, will increase very quickly. They already have about 40 per cent share of the oil market and this will increase much more strongly in the future," he said.

There is now a real risk of a crunch in the oil supply after next year when demand picks up because not enough is being done to build up new supplies of oil to compensate for the rapid decline in existing fields.

The IEA estimates that the decline in oil production in existing fields is now running at 6.7 per cent a year compared to the 3.7 per cent decline it had estimated in 2007, which it now acknowledges to be wrong. 

Full story from the Independent: [url]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/warning-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-1766585.html[/url]]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Mon, 03 Aug 2009 06:16:16 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic308-iea-dr-fatih-birol-oil-supplies-are-running-out-fast-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[It’s all about Saudi Arabia and IEA stats]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic304-its-all-about-saudi-arabia-and-iea-stats-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Canada’s Globe and Mail has an interview with iconoclastic oil analyst Henry Groppe, who argues most oil statistics -  including those from the IEA - are wrong because they are based on incorrect data. This is because, he says, they look at exports rather than imports.

Imports are more reliable because they are taxed, Groppe says, and looking at these figures shows that oil exports are overstated by between 1.25m and 2m barrels per day:

Ignoring unreliable weekly inventory numbers and dismissing claims of oil-filled tankers sitting idle in the Caribbean as largely fanciful, he has concluded that much of what has transpired in the past two-and-a-half years “can be traced to specific changes to the supply-demand balance.”

Groppe argues that speculators did not cause the big run-up in oil prices to $147 last year, but that they exacerbated some of the swings caused by supply and demand factors.

His views on the real causes of last July’s oil spike are outlined in a longer Houston Chronicle story from October 2008, where he explicitly linked the IEA’s overstatement of production to Saudi Arabia then “quietly reducing its production”. This, he said, was compounded by an unusually cold 2007/08 winter in the Northern Hemisphere and a massive earthquake in China leading to a switch to diesel from coal.

But the IEA and Saudi Arabia’s production are Groppe’s key themes in the last couple of years: he expressed similar views in a Global Public Media interview 2007 about $99 oil prices that year. Again, it was due to Saudi Arabia over-cautiously cutting production on the back of IEA data that overstated the rise in non-OECD production. Saudi Arabia, he said, it terrified of repeating its mistakes of the 1980s:

We think that the Saudis are always preoccupied with avoiding the terrible fiasco of the early 80s for them, where they were stuck with high contract prices with the mistaken view the market was going to go turn at any time and come back, and they watched their market decline from ten million barrels a day to a low of two and a quarter million barrels a day in April of ‘85. And Eumoni was responsible for that, and he got fired for it. And so they never want to repeat that again. The IEA was very strong a year ago in forecasting that there would be a 1.8 million barrels a day total increase in non-OPEC production in ‘07 - the largest non-OPEC increase since 1984 that got the Saudis’ attention.

Groppe is a peak oil believer - but in contrast to most who believe production has peaked, he doesn’t believe delays will lead to huge increases in oil price any time soon. He says those who believe Saudi Arabian reserves are overstated are wrong: they are fairly accurate because of Saudi Aramco’s continuing involvement with Exxon for several years even after Saudi assets were expropriated. At the same time, he says, production is falling in the rest of the world. Again from the Global Public Media interview:

…as we observe the responses among all of the consumers, we have found that instead of growing at a historical rate of 2.5% a year, consumption has actually been essentially flat for three years because we’ve had prices in the $60-70 a barrel range. So, if we - we’ve eliminated all growth in consumption at the $60-70 range - if prices are above that, consumption - based on all the results we’re seeing - will continuously decline.

And for the future? In the Globe and Mail interview, Groppe forecasts oil will hit $90 to $95 later this year.

Speculation could take crude even higher by another $10 or $20 a barrel, and volatility will remain a fixture of the market.

“It will run up to a high enough price level so the Saudis will feel they must act. And I think they will overreact again. I would expect oil to approach $100 later this year and correct back to $50 or $60 the middle part of next year. And then do it again.”

Incidentally, his forecast in late 2007 for 2008 oil prices was $65 - $85, “without extraneous disruption”.

Full article from the FT: [url]http://blogs.ft.com/energy-source/2009/07/30/its-all-about-saudi-arabia-and-iea-stats-contrarian-oil-watcher-henry-groppe/[/url]]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Fri, 31 Jul 2009 05:33:42 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic304-its-all-about-saudi-arabia-and-iea-stats-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA says oil prices have hit bottom around $50 to $60]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic300-iea-says-oil-prices-have-hit-bottom-around-50-to-60-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[Volatile oil prices have reached a floor of between $50-$60 a barrel and OPEC is unlikely to announce major output cuts in September, a senior IEA oil analyst said on Wednesday.

Oil slid below $66 a barrel on Wednesday, extending losses from the retreat of more than $1 the day before, on renewed concerns over the U.S. economy after a drop in consumer confidence and due to industry figures showing a rise in commercial crude oil inventories.

"The evidence so far suggests that prices have probably reached a floor which maybe around $50 to $60," Eduardo Lopez, a senior oil demand analyst at the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Reuters on the sidelines of an oil and gas conference.

"So, unless something dramatic were to happen, it's plausible ... prices will remain again at around that level, of course with probably a lot of volatility," he said.

Lopez said under a scenario of "relatively high" prices in the midst of a major recession, further cuts by OPEC when it meets again in September could lead to another demand reaction and impact on prices. "So under those circumstances I would be very surprised to see another big OPEC cut in September," Lopez said. 

The IEA is adviser to 28 industrialised economies.

OPEC kept production steady at its last meeting in May after agreeing to cut 4.2 million barrels per day of oil output since last summer in a bid to shore up crude oil prices battered by the financial crisis.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jul 2009 07:12:54 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic300-iea-says-oil-prices-have-hit-bottom-around-50-to-60-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA 2010 oil demand projection looks optimistic]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic292-iea-2010-oil-demand-projection-looks-optimistic-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[The IEA’s forecast for a 1.7 percent gain in global oil consumption next year may be too optimistic, based on the historic relation between gross domestic product and energy consumption.

The IEA’s projections for oil demand growth will trail the World Bank’s forecast for GDP growth by 0.8 percentage point, the least in 14 years. Since 1997, oil use has followed GDP by an average of more than 2 percentage points and in 2006 the spread widened to 3.9 percentage points.

The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates energy policy in 28 developed countries, releases a monthly oil market report that has become a benchmark for analysts and traders of futures. The agency was set up in 1974 in response to the Arab oil embargo.

“There’s been a remarkable correlation between GDP and oil demand growth,” said Edward Morse, head of economic research at LCM Commodities LLC in New York. “The IEA numbers are implausible.”

World wide consumption of crude oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day to 85.2 million barrels a day in 2010, the Paris-based agency said in a monthly report on July 10. The gain would follow a two-year decline in demand, the first drops since the early 1980s.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries projects a 500,000 barrel-a-day, or 0.6 percent, increase to 84.3 million in 2010, according to a July 14 report. The U.S. Energy Department forecast a 940,000 barrel-a-day gain, or 1.1 percent, to 84.8 million, the Short-Term Energy Outlook showed on July 7.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Tue, 28 Jul 2009 13:03:08 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic292-iea-2010-oil-demand-projection-looks-optimistic-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[OPEC forecasts slower oil demand recovery in 2010 than IEA]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic278-opec-forecasts-slower-oil-demand-recovery-in-2010-than-iea-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[OPEC expects a slower rebound in oil demand next year than the IEA, based on a weaker outlook for the global economy.

Worldwide crude-oil consumption will increase by 500,000 barrels a day, or 0.6 percent, to 84.3 million a day in 2010 as industrial production gradually picks up after this year’s recession, OPEC said in a report today. That compares with an increase of 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million, forecast by the IEA on July 10.

“Current uncertainties are expected to continue to cast a shadow over the market in 2010,” OPEC’s Vienna-based secretariat said in its monthly report. “In the U.S., stretched households will require time to readjust their balance sheets, amid rising unemployment and sharply diminished wealth.”

Next year’s 2.3 percent increase in global gross domestic product will be driven by emerging countries, such as China and India, while economic growth among developed nations will remain “anemic,” OPEC said. The Paris-based IEA, which advises 28 consuming countries, assumes a stronger global GDP rebound of 2.5 percent.

OPEC’s 2010 projection is 300,000 barrels a day lower than the 84.6 million barrels a day estimated in the organization’s World Oil Outlook released on July 8. The monthly report is based on more timely data than the outlook, which projects through to 2013.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jul 2009 10:59:25 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic278-opec-forecasts-slower-oil-demand-recovery-in-2010-than-iea-new-posts.html</guid>
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			<title><![CDATA[IEA sees oil demand rising in 2010 after 2 year fall]]></title>
			<link>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic267-iea-sees-oil-demand-rising-in-2010-after-2-year-fall-new-posts.html</link>
			<description><![CDATA[The IEA (International Energy Agency) predicts global oil demand will rebound next year, recovering from the fastest drop since the early 1980s as the world economy emerges from its slump.

Worldwide consumption of crude oil will increase by 1.4 million barrels a day, or 1.7 percent, to 85.2 million barrels a day next year, the adviser said in its first monthly report to include a forecast for 2010. The growth will be concentrated in emerging economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Oil prices have advanced 34 percent this year on optimism that government stimulus will lift countries out of the worst global recession in six decades. Crude traded at less than $60 a barrel today in New York, a day before the July 11 anniversary when prices reached a record $147.27 last year.

“We expect demand to rebound based on the forecasts of major institutions,” David Fyfe, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, said in an interview from Paris. “There’s still a strong note of caution. Demand data coming in for 2009 is still weak on a trend basis.”

The International Monetary Fund, in a forecast before the IEA prepared its outlook, estimated that the world economy will expand by 2.5 percent in 2010. The IEA said its 2010 view may remain “broadly unchanged” once it includes the revised IMF forecast, whose changes mainly reflected developed economies, where crude use is less intense.]]></description>
			<author><![CDATA[dummy@example.com (oil prices)]]></author>
			<pubDate>Mon, 13 Jul 2009 05:10:25 +0000</pubDate>
			<guid>http://www.liveoilprices.co.uk/forum/topic267-iea-sees-oil-demand-rising-in-2010-after-2-year-fall-new-posts.html</guid>
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