Topic: IEA oil market report for September 2009
Global oil demand is revised up nearly 0.5 mb/d for both 2009 and 2010, to 84.4 mb/d and 85.7 mb/d respectively, mostly on stronger-than-expected data in OECD North America and non-OECD Asia. The global economy is stabilising, but OECD demand is poised to remain weak for the remainder of this year, while seemingly strong non-OECD demand may be obscured by Chinese stock building.
August global oil supply was down 400 kb/d from July to 84.9 mb/d, on lower non-OPEC output. Total non-OPEC estimates for 2009 and 2010 are unchanged versus last month, averaging 51.0 mb/d in 2009 and 51.5 mb/d in 2010. OPEC NGL averages 5.2 mb/d and 6.1 mb/d respectively.
OPEC crude oil supply in August was up 55 kb/d at 28.8 mb/d. OPEC-11 output rose by 80 kb/d to 26.3 mb/d, or 1.4 mb/d over target. OPEC met in Vienna as this report went to press, with discussions on better compliance seemingly more likely than a further target cut. The ‘call on OPEC crude and stock change’ is revised up to 28.3 mb/d for 3Q09 and to 27.9 mb/d in 4Q09 on the more robust demand forecast.
Global refinery crude run projections for 3Q09 are also revised up this month to 72.1 mb/d, an increase of 0.2 mb/d from last month’s report, due to higher demand estimates and a lower US hurricane adjustment. Nonetheless, runs remain pressured by poor refining margins.
OECD industry stocks rose by 12.8 mb in July, to 2,778 mb, 4.6% above last year’s level. Middle distillate increases in all three regions, particularly North America, outweighed a decrease in both gasoline and fuel oil stocks. End-July forward demand cover was unchanged versus June at 61.8 days.
Benchmark crude oil prices rose $7/bbl on average in August, to around $71-73/bbl. Arguably, prices have tested limits and trade in a $68-74/bbl price range for now. Future price direction will hinge partly on how long the distillate overhang persists.
Source: http://omrpublic.iea.org/