OPEC oil production on forecast, Iran slightly down

Total OPEC oil production averaged 28.7mn b/d in September with a slight reductions by Iran, might in part explain why oil prices have remained firm for so long, despite weak fundamentals.

Figures obtained by MEES show Iranian exports sliding from 2.46mn b/d in July, to 2.31mn b/d in August, and then further to register 2.19mn b/d in September. A 100,000 b/d fall in southern loadings from Iraq, which is not subject to output agreements, also contributed to lower OPEC September figures.

While OPEC production rose for five straight months to August, revisions to Saudi Arabia and Nigeria in July and Iran in August show OPEC output stabilizing in August. Higher domestic refinery throughputs in Iraq prompted an upward revision to baseline Iraqi output.

The latest shipping data from tanker tracker Oil Movements bear out MEES findings. These show a sharp drop in OPEC liftings at the beginning of September, with loadings holding steady through the month, and a projected rise in October and November, presumably to meet the expected seasonal rise in winter demand.

Tags:  Iran, oil production, OPEC