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Peak oil is here, demand to outpace supply in 2010
Published on November 26, 2009 by oilprices · No CommentsFor all peak oil fanatics , here’s some news to make your day. Growing world oil use will likely outpace the rate of new supplies in 2010, eroding the huge stockpiles of crude which have mounted around the world since the start of the global economic crisis, according to a Reuters poll of ten top oil tracking analysts and organisations, oil demand is predicted to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) next year to 85.9 million bpd.
At the same time, the rise in production from outside OPEC and output of natural gas liquids from OPEC members is seen growing by just 800,000 bpd in total.
“The key question for prices is supply,” Barclays Capital analyst Costanzo Jacazio said.
“2010 is really a bridging year, if the economies continue to perform as well as they have been doing during the early stages of the recovery, then I think by 2011 we’ll be seeing the demand numbers at or above where they were in 2008.”
Non OPEC output is seen averaging 51 million bpd in 2010, up from 50.8 million bpd, while OPEC output of NGLs, which are not subject to the producer group’s production quotas are expected to rise to 5.6 million bpd, up by more than 20 percent since 2008.
If OPEC members can maintain current adherence levels to present output quotas, with group output including Iraq assessed around 28.9 million bpd, crude oil inventories could fall by almost 150 million barrels next year. Demand for OPEC’s crude is seen at 29.3 million bpd.
At the end of September, the IEA assessed oil stocks in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development at 60 days of forward cover, 120 million barrels above the five year average.