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Some facts about the peak oil theory
Published on November 3, 2009 by oilprices · 2 CommentsThe peak oil theory surfaced recently during an event in Santa Barbara in the US. Some people use this theory to argue against continued support for and development of our petroleum based energy resources. I would like to share a few facts that may help put the issue in a more balanced perspective.
Peak Oil theorists usually neglect to mention that the Peak Oil theory is just that, a theory. It is based on a belief the world has reached the point of maximum production of crude oil, and is used to predict painful and disruptive catastrophes as the world adjusts to the alleged decline of this critical source of energy.
Unfortunately, arguing about Peak Oil is like arguing about how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. It’s a theory that cannot be proved. Worse, those individuals who embrace the Peak Oil theory frequently also promote energy policies that can have costly and disruptive impacts on consumers and businesses.
In fact, until recently, the petroleum industry was prevented by US policies from accessing much of the undiscovered, technically recoverable resources of more than 115 billion barrels of oil and 650 trillion cubic feet of natural gas estimated to be located on US federal lands, much of it offshore. Whether those valuable energy resources will someday be available to American consumers remains in question.
CERA estimated remaining global oil resources at 3.74 trillion barrels, three times the 1.2 trillion barrels estimated by the proponents of the Peak Oil theory. That finding led CERA to conclude that “the ’peak oil’ argument is based on faulty analysis which could, if accepted, distort critical policy and investment decisions and cloud the debate over the energy future.”
Full story by: Noozhawk
Tags: peak oil
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The author in his review of so-called ‘facts’ about Peak Oil reveals his utter lack of knowledge on the subject. Peak Oil has _never_ been about the amount remaining in the ground. It is not about the size of the tank, it is about the size of the tap.
CERA are and always were the uber-optimists of all the cornucopians. I would prefer by far to take note of the increasingly pessimistic reports of the IEA and the recent report by the UK Energy Research Council both of which point to Peak Oil occurring _by_2020_at_the_latest.
The so called Hirsch Report of 2005 suggests a minimum of twenty years to allow for mitigation strategies. That has gone – we now have eleven years, so we are into the middle set of consequences outlined by Hirsch. A few more years of inaction by governments, cornucopians ignoring the issue and/or an early onset of Peak Oil and we could easily be into Hirsch’s worst case scenario.
I could write a whole load on depletion but I will limit myself to pointing out that the US Lower 48 peaked in 1970, the UK North Sea in 1999. Cantarell in Mexico has fallen off a cliff. Etc., etc.
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Agreed!