Crude Oil Weekly Market Recap

Crude Oil edged higher this week, rallying a little more than a dollar per barrel driven by dollar weakness, a strong equity markets. During the middle of the week, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicted members will need to produce 28.94 million barrels a day to satisfy demand in 2010. OPEC projection is an increase of about 190,000 barrels a day more than last month’s projection. “Even taking into account the uncertainty regarding demand for OPEC crude, current OPEC production is likely to exceed market needs,” the Vienna-based secretariat said in the report.

OPEC increased its forecast for worldwide oil consumption in 2010 by 120,000 barrels a day to 85.24 million barrels a day. That represents growth of 880,000 barrels a day from 2009, 80,000 barrels a day more than it forecast last month. Consumption growth is driven entirely by developing economies and will remain sensitive to the pace of global economic recovery, according to OPEC.

On Friday, The IEA increased its estimate for world demand in 2010 by 70,000 barrels a day to 86.6 million barrels a day. That would mean a gain of 1.6 million barrels a day, or 1.8 percent, from 2009 levels, it said. Economies outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development continue to lead the recovery in consumption, the IEA said.

The Department of Energy’s inventory report on Wednesday had a relatively surprising gasoline draw. Analysts on average had expected no inventory change in gasoline, and the surprise 2.9 million barrel draw is positive for future price action. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week.

In addition, total products supplied (which is the demand for products) over the last four-week period has averaged 19.4 million barrels per day, up by 3.8 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 8.9 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent from the same period last year.

Also during the week, the Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy Outlook published on Tuesday shows contrasting consumption patterns for motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil. The recent economic downturn had a much smaller impact on motor gasoline consumption than on the use of distillate fuel oil. The Outlook projects that moderate growth in personal income and the rising cost of motor gasoline cost per mile will limit growth in motor gasoline consumption in 2010 and 2011. They also describe they reduction in use of public transportation decreasing by 3.8% in 2009.

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